Hovering over this month's annual gathering of world leaders at the
United Nations is the international community's failure to end the
escalating war in Syria that is starting to spill over into a fragile
and divided region.
The Syrian conflict has bitterly divided the most powerful members of
the Security Council, paralyzing the only U.N. body that can impose
global sanctions and authorize military action.
It frustrated former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan, who quit his
high-profile role as special envoy to the country last month, giving
reasons that amounted to scathing criticism of world powers for failing
to unite to stop the chaos in the Arab state.
There will be a flurry of meetings on the sidelines of the VIP gathering
at the General Assembly that begins Sept. 25, including a ministerial
meeting of the Security Council's five veto-wielding members and lots of
behind-the-scenes discussions among the more than 130 heads of state
and government coming to New York. But frustrated diplomats don't expect
any breakthrough on Syria, and outside observers agree.
This "means we're heading into a very dark time in Syria — more violence
and a slow grinding conflict that's going to test everyone's limits on
non-intervention," Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow and Syria expert at
the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The Associated Press
in an interview Monday.
"I think it's the elephant in the room in the sense that it's a
lightning rod issue," Tabler said. "It's a crisis the U.N. is unable to
deal with. And so, basically what happens is that you're going to have a
lot of speeches ... but unless you get the Security Council agreeing I
don't see anything happening."
Since the Syrian conflict began in March 2011, the division among the five powerful permanent council nations has deepened.
The United States, Britain and France have tried unsuccessfully to get
the council to put pressure on President Bashar Assad's government to
halt the fighting and pull back its heavy weapons.
Russia, Syria's key protector, and China, which is supporting Moscow,
are demanding equal pressure on the opposition and say the West's real
goal is regime change, which could lead to a takeover of Syria by
Islamist radicals. Russia is the major arms supplier to Syria and has a
base in Tartus. It is Russia's only naval base outside the former Soviet
Union that serves Russian navy ships on missions to the Mediterranean.
Russia and China have vetoed three Western-backed resolutions, the
latest in July which included the threat of non-military sanctions.
France's U.N. Ambassador Gerard Araud said Monday that the Security
Council "has never been as paralyzed as it is today since the end of the
Cold War."
France is now working with the U.S., Britain, Turkey, Arab friends and
the Syrian opposition in its fight against the Assad regime, he said.
"It is essential that we support the democratic opposition in Syria,"
Araud said. "Some believe it is possible to choose between Assad and the
Islamists. We tell them, 'If you keep blocking, you'll get Assad and
then the Islamists.'"
U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said the council's failure to support efforts
by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Annan to end the violence is
"reprehensible and has only intensified the suffering of the Syrian
people. "
"I am not optimistic in the short term that the dynamic in the council
is going to change," she said. "However, the United States is not
allowing that to block our efforts to speed the day when Assad departs,
through sanctions and political and nonlethal support for the
opposition."
President Barack Obama has called for Assad to step down, but the United
States wants to ensure that whatever government replaces his regime is a
democracy that respects the rights of all Syrians, particularly
religious minorities and women.
Annan has been replaced with former Algerian foreign minister Lakhdar
Brahimi, a highly regarded diplomat and mediator who met Assad in
Damascus on Saturday, but gave no indication of a breakthrough.
Many countries are hopeful that Brahimi can get the government and
opposition to peace talks, but he has called his mission "nearly
impossible."
He has said he is still holding talks with key players and does not have a plan yet.
"I will go to New York for the occasion of the General Assembly, to meet
the Security Council and foreign ministers and representatives of
countries that have interest, influence or both concerning Syria,"
Brahimi said.
The Security Council has given its support to Brahimi, but its division
is so deep now that members couldn't even agree on a statement last
month on the humanitarian crisis. The conflict has left some 3 million
Syrians inside and outside the country in need of food and other
assistance.
Michael Weiss, research director at the London-based Henry Jackson
Society think tank, said no breakthrough is likely at the General
Assembly because Russian President Vladimir Putin has done nothing "to
repudiate Assad." Also, he added, Obama is reluctant to intervene in the
Middle East as he fights for reelection on a record of ending the U.S.
military role in Iraq and setting a 2014 deadline to withdraw from
Afghanistan.
"All you are going to see for the next six months or longer is this
continuing state of civil war," Weiss said. "The rebels may assassinate
members of the Assad regime, but until they have parity of weaponry and
forces, Damascus will not fall."
The West has hesitated to arm the rebels for fear that costly and lethal
equipment could fall into the hands of extremists like al-Qaida, or get
lost. The rebels have received weapons delivered via Turkey, Iraq and
elsewhere, according to activists and diplomats. Some of the arms,
activists say, are purchased with Saudi and Qatari funds.
At the opening of the 67th session of the General Assembly on Tuesday,
Ban said "the deteriorating situation in Syria will ... be foremost in
our minds" when world leaders gather next week.
The Syrian conflict, which began as a protest against four decades of
dictatorship by the Assad family, was spawned by the Arab Spring, the
pro-democracy wave of uprisings across the Middle East that began when
Tunisians rose up in January 2011 against their longtime dictator.
The changes in the Arab world since then are the theme of a
ministerial-level meeting of the Security Council on Sept. 26 on the
sidelines of the General Assembly speeches.
Germany U.N. Ambassador Peter Wittig, the current Security Council
president whose foreign minister will be presiding at that meeting, said
"there will be council members who will speak out on Syria." But he
said the focus of the meeting will be the emergence of the Arab League
as a key player in the Middle East with "a lot more clout."
Supporters of a democratic government in Syria — the "Friends of Syria" —
are also scheduled to meet on Sept. 28 at a session chaired by
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Their last meeting in Paris
in July brought together some 100 nations including the U.S., its
European and Arab partners, as well as the fractious Syrian opposition,
all looking to turn up the heat to force Assad from power.
Britain's U.N. Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said "Syria will be at or
near the top of the agenda at most of the key bilateral meetings."
There will also be a meeting of foreign ministers and development
ministers "to galvanize support for refugees and those displaced within
Syria," he said.
Earlier this month, the United Nations nearly doubled its humanitarian
appeal for Syria to $347 million, even though the original appeal for
$180 million is only half-funded. The secretary-general has urged donors
to increase their contributions.
Another issue certain to make headlines during the General Assembly is the dispute over Iran's nuclear intentions.
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who insists his country's nuclear
program is peaceful, will address the assembly on Sept. 26. Israel's
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has accused Iran of trying to
build a nuclear arsenal, takes the podium on Sept. 27.
And on that day political directors from the six countries trying to get
Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment program — the U.S., Russia,
China, Britain, France and Germany — will meet behind closed doors,
possibly followed by a ministerial session.
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